(geral) what path should Macau take to reposition its fully liberalized aviation industry for the future?

 fev26

Against the backdrop of deepening cooperation between Hong Kong and Zhuhai airports and accelerated integration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, what path should Macau take to reposition its fully liberalized aviation industry for the future?

Macau’s aviation industry took off with the opening of its international airport in 1995 – the world’s second and Greater China’s first airport constructed on reclaimed land. Three decades later, the airport is home to 31 airlines, linking 46 cities globally with around 1,000 weekly scheduled flights, long serving as a vital transport hub connecting Macau to the rest of the world.

Yet flight growth has long been constrained by limited land and sea resources, which have strained apron space, taxiways and aircraft parking facilities. As early as July 2016, the SAR government first proposed an expansion blueprint and in November 2024 it officially kicked off the “Reclamation and Apron Construction Project” to reserve capacity for future traffic expansion.

While the expansion is widely seen as laying the groundwork for more flights, industry insiders warn that hardware upgrades alone will not automatically attract airlines. An airport’s appeal ultimately hinges on its regulatory framework, operating environment and whether its passenger structure can provide carriers with stable revenue prospects.

With this in mind, the Macau government had been exploring regulatory reforms to reshape its aviation market even before the pandemic. The new Civil Aviation Activities Act was proposed in June 2023 and came into force on 1 February this year. Under this new regime, Macau’s civil aviation market will gradually shift from its previous model to a licensing system, with licenses allocated through open tender.

This means that the government has formalized market access, allowing more operators to compete for licenses under clear rules. In theory, this move can foster greater competition, increase route density and flight choices, and may exert downward pressure on ticket prices, ultimately enhancing consumer choice and market vitality.

The drive for development on both the hardware and regulatory fronts seems clear. However, when it comes to actual passenger flows, Macau Airport faces a deeper structural challenge: the convenience of overland transport across the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) is gradually displacing air travel as the primary mode of entry.

Even as Macau’s visitor arrivals hit a record high in 2025 and its tourism sector continued to recover from the shadows of the pandemic, air passenger volume dropped by 1.6% year-on-year. The disconnect between rising visitor numbers and sluggish air capacity recovery reflects a growing preference among travelers to enter Macau by land.

A key factor of this trend is the widespread adoption of “air-and-land” combined travel routes following the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge. Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) connects directly to Macau and Zhuhai via the bridge, and with its more frequent flights, greater economies of scale and more sophisticated facilities, it has become the preferred gateway for many visitors bound for Macau.

Data reinforces this shift: in 2025, approximately 9,187,786 travelers entered Macau via the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, roughly three times the 3,049,672 arrivals by air. This aligns with the closer cross-border integration across the GBA’s “9+2” cities, as authorities push to build a “one-hour living circle” that enables fast overland travel between multiple urban centers – with the bridge serving as a flagship infrastructure supporting this model.

Macau itself is a compact, high-density tourist destination, located close to neighboring cities with multiple border checkpoints. As cross-border land transport becomes increasingly more convenient, travelers naturally prefer cross-border coaches, private shuttles or “fly to a nearby city then transfer by land” itineraries, putting Macau Airport under growing competitive pressure.

Adding to the complexity is the deepening aviation cooperation between Hong Kong and Zhuhai. In November 2024, Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK) invested around RMB 4.3 billion (US$622 million) to acquire a 35% stake in Zhuhai Airport, transforming loose collaborative intentions into a long-term partnership bound by capital and operational interests.

Hong Kong and Zhuhai are accelerating efforts to streamline air-to-land connections, including the joint launch of a new check-in facility at Macau integrated resort MGM COTAI – a collaboration between AAHK, Zhuhai Airport and MGM that aims to further strengthen passenger distribution and dispersal capacity.

Against this backdrop, Macau Airport faces an awkward positioning predicament: it cannot compete head-on with HKIA in the medium-to-long haul market, nor does it possess Zhuhai Airport’s advantages and connectivity in the mainland market. If Hong Kong and Zhuhai continue to refine their transfer networks, Macau Airport risks falling into a trap of idle capacity, rising costs and underutilization if it merely assumes that flights will follow expansion.

The core question therefore remains: amid competition and collaboration between Hong Kong, Zhuhai and Macau, what unique value can Macau Airport offer that other airports cannot easily replicate?

The SAR government has long recognized this challenge, making the expansion of air links to East and Southeast Asia a key priority, while pursuing a dual-track strategy of low-cost carriers and business aviation to carve out a sustainable niche amid fierce competition.

As a city with strong demand for gaming, leisure and MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions) activities, Macau’s viable path to securing a place in the regional aviation network is not to compete directly with Hong Kong or poach passengers from Zhuhai, but to leverage its own strengths to support destination-driven air routes.

This means focusing on short-to-medium haul, high-frequency routes primarily to East and Southeast Asia, using low-cost carriers to attract price-sensitive and weekend short-haul travelers, and developing business aviation and premium charter services to capture stable demand from MICE, entertainment and sports event audiences – therefore avoiding prolonged and draining competition with Hong Kong and Zhuhai on major trunk routes.

Ultimately, expansion provides the space, and the new licensing regime offers the mechanism, but clear positioning is what turns that space and mechanism into traffic and revenue.

The next phase of competition for Macau Airport is not about becoming bigger, but about becoming a destination airport that both passengers and airlines truly need.

https://asgam.com/2026/02/26/up-in-the-air-3/